Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
