Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
